IPL 3: Turn of Events Part I

We are on the verge of reaching the end stage of IPL 3. At this point with just 17 matches left out of a total of 56 MI looks about certain to reach the semis and KXIP seems to be knocked out. Really? My this blog discuss about how KXIP could still qualify for the semis.

Lets talk about how its not the end of the road for KXIP. One thing is certain that they can not qualify without winning the rest of the matches. They have played 10 matches up till now and have only 4 points. So for them to qualify they need to win all of the 4 matches which means they end the league with 12 points on their name. Their next four matches are against MI, DD, DC and CSK. And not just the wins, they need a lot of fortune as well. So if those prayers Preity did at Vaishno Devi and has been doing before the start of every match are listened by the almighty then KXIP could experience the most exciting journey of all their IPL seasons. Winning it then would of course be the cherry on the cake.

Of course winning all their matches is the first brave step they need to take, and to help them in achieving this feat none other than Mumbai Indians, their first saviour, need to help them by winning all of their remaining matches. Mumbai Indians have played 9 matches up till now and have 14 points. So winning their remaining matches take them to 22 points and a finish at the top of the table. With these results the table look like this.

TEAM	MTS	WON	LOST	PTS
MI	14	11	3	22
KXIP	14	6	8	12
DD	12	6	6	12
RR	12	6	6	12
RCB	10	5	5	10
CSK	11	5	6	10
KKR	11	5	6	10
DC	10	3	7	6

Pts. Table when KXIP wins all and MI wins all other

With these results in 8 matches for MI and KXIP we are left with 9 matches with 4 of those matches for Deccan Chargers and they just have 6 points on the table. Deccan Chargers could be their second saviour as they could hold many teams in the table from leaping across that 12 point mark set by KXIP now. Their matches would be against RCB, CSK, RCB and DD. So if they win all of their matches then it means nothing change in the above table except them having 14 points and thus qualifying for the semis. Something like this.

TEAM	MTS	WON	LOST	PTS
MI	14	11	3	22
DC	14	7	7	14
KXIP	14	6	8	12
DD	13	6	7	12
RR	12	6	6	12
RCB	12	5	7	10
CSK	12	5	7	10
KKR	11	5	6	10

Pts. Table when KXIP wins all and MI, DC wins all other

With 5 matches as RCB v KKR, CSK v KKR, RR v RCB, CSK v DD, KKR v RR the situation is pretty simple for DD, to win their only match and make sure they qualify for the semis. If they don’t then it means CSK win their only match left and make sure they qualify. If they don’t that means KKR win either against RCB or RR and make sure they qualify. If they don’t that means RCB win their only match and make sure they qualify. If they don’t then that leaves 5 teams on 12 points and it comes to the Net Run Rate.

TEAM	MTS	WON	LOST	PTS
MI	14	11	3	22
RR	14	8	6	16
DC	14	7	7	14
KXIP	14	6	8	12
DD	14	6	8	12
RCB	14	6	8	12
CSK	14	6	8	12
KKR	14	6	8	12

The Net Run Rate is in the hands of KXIP and to make it to the semis they not only need to win but win big and hope that none of the other teams make past through them.

At the moment the net run rate for the five teams in picture are as follows:

TEAM	NRR
KXIP	-0.700
DD	+0.287
RCB	+0.428
CSK	+0.159
KKR	-0.328

And with KXIP winning all its matches, DD losing all and RCB, CSK, KKR just one out of their remaining 5, 4, 4 matches it certainly means that their run rate is going down maybe even stay negative and only if KXIP can manage it above them.

At the moment its RCB v DC today and only if DC wins today, it all begins for them.